Brexit and Scotland

Posted by RDN under Economic affairs / Politics & campaigns on 27 June 2016

The EU referendum has had very odd implications for Scotland. I was no fan of Scottish independence, but I can’t say the break-up of the UK struck me as very worrying from an English, let alone an English Tory, point of view. Now though, one can easily see a rational Scot of any political stripe thinking that if it came to leaving the EU or the UK, maybe it’s the UK that Scots need less.

I am largely ignorant of Scottish politics, and of its economic and social data. Let’s suppose, though, that the Scottish working class is no better-educated than its English equivalent;  and that Scotland is not an obvious place for world capitalism to hugely invest. If those assumptions are sort of right, Scotland might take even longer than England to see big gains from Brexit. Upshot? Independence from England and membership of the EU might look and even be an attractive option, almost whatever the terms of entry to the latter. I have no idea whether the EU would think an independent Scotland was a worthwile catch, of course and anyway getting into the EU might produce the same sort of uncertainty-shocks that leaving it will cause the UK.

Curiously, though, the SNP might gets its heart’s desire, and even those English and Scots unionists who didn’t like the idea of breakup before, might see the merits of it now. Might all turn out nicely.

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