10 Propositions on the Kyoto/Bali climate treaty

For BBC Radio 2's Jeremy Vine and BBC TV News 24
15 January, 2007

1 The Kyoto (and Bali) process could have targets twice as bold as anyone dreams of and still fail to make much difference to climate change.

2 Kyoto (and Bali) process could be twice as well policed as anyone dreams of and still fail to make much difference to climate change.

3 The weak treaty actually agreed is a fairly accurate picture of the world's current willingness to act and of the shaky consensus to do anything.

4 The fans of the UN/EU position (big cuts soon) forget that treaties are not expressions of aspirations but of preparedness to act. That's why Kyoto/Bali ought to be weak.

5 The Kyoto (and Bali) process will fail for years, so progress must be made elsewhere, by a "coalition of the willing" and by anyone and any state prepared to make a difference.

6 A prime example is the US, where, so far, about half the country's states are on the same page as the EU and UN, and about half not. The half that wants to act, can do so.

7 The pro-Kyoto countries and states will not do anything like enough to make a difference to climate change at least in the short term (ten or so years).

8 The only honest way to sell Kyoto (and Bali) is as an agreement which might well not make any real difference but which is the very minimum we ought to be saying we'll do.

9 Kyoto/Bali is at best a rehearsal of what international action on climate change seriously might be like one day.

10 The media ought to understand that it is politically (and even scientifially) quite reasonable to be sceptical about Kyoto.