10 Propositions on Global Warming

These notes were prepared for a discussion on BBC World Service, 23 October 2002, World Today (aimed at South Asia)

The topic was “Global Warming: How can renewable energy help?”

1) Alternative power is expensive – nuclear plus hydrogen looks the best so far

2) The developing world will build its growth on cheap power and cheap labour – what else has it got? Is it right to delay growth (make it more expensive) by going for renewables? Probably not.

3) Kyoto can’t make any serious difference (5-10% in warming emissions, against the 50-80% IPPC says might be needed)

4) The rich world could reduce it warming emissions (conservation, nuclear and odd bits and pieces of solar)

5) The poor world can’t go for alternative power (which usually requires huge investment for small savings). Is "forcing" renewables (or emissions reduction) the best use of the scarce resoruces anyone will devote to "dealing with" global warming?

6) If you mess with the tax rich people pay (to get them to adjust habits), you’d better get their consent. It may never happen, especially if they believe fiscal signals hurt but don't deliver (perhaps because of "price inelasticity").

7) We don’t know whether it would be cheaper (more effective) to head off climate change, or respond to it

8) It would not hurt in cost or convenience to reduce Western energy use - though the case for small reductions may be slight.

9) If climate change is not linear (ie, not dose-related in a steady progression), then small incremental reductions in emissions don’t make a huge amount of sense

10) Climate change may be the worst thing (the only bad thing?) man has done to himself. Trouble is – it really may not be