10 Propositions on global warming policy

(Actually, 13 propositions, prepared for a debate on BBC Radio 5 Live, 12 January, 2004)

1 The policy issue is unique: rationing or penalising something which is cheap, abundant and harmless to us

2 The problem is non-linear: we must accept that there may be little gain for quite a lot of pain

3 It is possible that only a very large reduction in GHG will work, and yet probable that only a small reduction is politically possible

4 The gain from our pain won't be felt by us (but in the future and far way)

5 Any rationing approach faces big issues of equity and practicality (rationing movement and warmth is a peculiar idea)

6 Any taxation approach faces big issues of equity and efficacy (energy is price inelastic)

7 There are many nations with much greater consumption than ours (north America for instance)

8 We do have the technologies to make a huge difference (conservation, nuclear and renewable)

9 No nation has shown any willingness to bear any pain on this issue

10 Some countries which started out reluctant may turn out to be leaders, and vice versa

11 Change may be easy: countries have shown remarkable ability to grow without much or at all increasing GHG: China, USA, UK

12 GW is not industry's fault. It's ours. This makes vigorous action less likely.

13 GW is on a scale with the non-existent crusade against world poverty, with a little more self-interest dictating action by the rich world